This is how we go to a dictatorship in Nepal.
Scenario 1:
Deadlock between existing political forces becomes entrenched. People ask the political parties to do anything to en-sure stability. Most elites in Nepal stay outside this fray by running on the aid industry or part of crony business that extracts from ordinary citizens and benefits from policy corruption. Most citizens have come to rely on remittance, thus shifting their loyalty from their leaders to the one who sustains them from outside the country. This in turn gives all control of their local affairs to a syndicate of the same old corrupt political parties who will rule with impunity. Citizens become more divided by the day (because of the parties using ethnicity and religion as their trump-card). More and more citizens with common-sense, brains or energy leave Nepal every day. There will be no elections or it keeps getting postponed or the resulting power only gets distributed between the existing syndicate system of power dividing)
Nepal ends up a failed state. All productive young Nepalis keep leaving the country. Nepal will fragment and ruled in turn by a syndicate of autocratic parties (in a new form of old political parties).
Bihar and Uttar Pradesh will laugh at us.
Scenario 2:
Because of ethnic tensions, global economic shocks, price hikes and the traditional powers, Nepali Congress & UML being irrelevant, coalition of hard-line communists and ethnic fanatics stage a soft-coup to rule Nepal. Nepal armed forces are going to be in disarray because of their predicament of no clear alternative to support and no visionary leadership to rally around. The élite heads of these forces will support who-ever is in power to stay as a power-broker. They will be slowly weeded of democracy accepting army professionals.
Simultaneously Kathmandu based business and elites become cronies to the power holders centrally. Other cities also form a syndicate of business-political-mafia nexus. Rest of the country slowly becomes dependent completely on these few power centers. We will be like Somalia where the capital city is de-facto safe but the rest of the country given to who-ever can rule by force (usually religions, ethnic, racketeering fanatics). We end up in a dictatorship which accepts India and China as their over-lords and creates a dependent state of Nepal.
Somalia and Ethopia will laugh at us.
An alternate Scenario (3) to stop us from going down into the above hell hole….
One or more new political forces rises which will be led by a dedicated young professionals led leadership, which weeds power away from traditional forces, delicately convinces the cynical Nepali citizens, the pompous Nepali élite, and the confused armed forces of Nepal to stand with them while they are small and growing.
Slowly and surely it redirects the country towards entrepreneurship, making economic revolution its key goal. Job creation is its motto. It wins the hearts and minds by “under-promising, and over-delivering. It sets an example whereby old parties transform themselves or become irrelevant. It balances the dignity of Nepalis while reassuring India and China. This new force will steer away from international political games by using mutual economic benefit as the bait.
No one will laugh at us. Jealousy ensues.
How to make this alternate scenario (3) happen ?
Do start supporting any new political force(s) that are trying to group together. Help them. Organize your own local neighborhood group that wants to work together to work together. Build community teams in your neighborhood that consists of all ages, tribes, status. Start talking with each other on building your neighborhoods. Do small things together. Support untested new leadership that promises to “unite us all”. Declare yourself independent of the existing political parties. Declare it openly !
Try now. What is there for you to lose? if you don’t try, expect your children to slap you in your face for not trying.